Reassessing Project 100,000: Context and Lessons – A Research Note

Riot’s Chief Scientist, Dr. Russell Warne, published a new lit review today that explores Project 100,000, which was a program that lowered the minimum IQ threshold needed to join the military. Over 300,000 men enlisted or were drafted under this program, most with IQs between 80 and 92. The slang at the time called them “McNamara’s morons,” and the unfavorable views of Project 100,000 and these men have lingered for over 50 years.

During Project 100,000, the military conducted research on these men, but most of these reports have been ignored for over 50 years. This article is a lit review highlighting research on Project 100,000. Among the findings:

:right_arrow: Project 100,000 was not unusual for the military. Before and since, the U.S. military had inducted more people in the 80-92 IQ range than during Project 100,000.
:right_arrow: Most men in Project 100,000 did NOT serve in combat. They were not “canon fodder.” In fact, the author could not verify that their death rate was any higher than the general population of the military at the time.
:right_arrow: Project 100,000 did NOT cause a major decrease in average IQ in the military (2nd image) or lead to a deterioration of fighting ability.
:right_arrow: Failure rates in basic and job training were higher in Project 100,000 men. But the vast majority of individuals in the program still met the era’s standards of military and job performance.

Contrary to most of the narratives about Project 100,000, the program was not a massive failure–though it wasn’t a great success, either. As the author says, “Project 100,000 met some of its creators’ goals and fell short of others” (p. 1).

From a scientific perspective, the most important finding from Project 100,000 is that it is the world’s biggest test of the training hypothesis (see third image). In most jobs, men in Project 100,000 were less proficient than their smarter comrades (assuming the lower-IQ personnel could complete the training at all). Still, most Project 100,000 men had satisfactory job ratings from their supervisors. As the article states, this shows that “. . . often ‘good enough’ is good enough” (p. 18).

No, men in Project 100,000 were not “McNamara’s morons.” Most had IQs within the normal range and served their country honorably. There’s a lot more to learn from the article, and it is worth the time to read it completely.

Read the article here:
https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X261440131

Preprint version here:
https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/rtazj

Original post: https://x.com/RiotIQ/status/2046650654039429217

Base rate math. The active military during Vietnam peaked at over 3 million people. Project 100000 inducted around 341000 men across five years, so the dilution effect is massive. On top of that, the military was simultaneously pulling in more technical specialists and officers who skew scores upward, which offsets the lower end intake. The Navy actually hit its highest mean IQ right in the middle of the program. Aggregate means hide a lot of variance.

300000 sounds huge until you realize it is spread across five years and diluted into a pool several times that size. The math basically explains the whole chart.