Do extremely high scores predict anything about long term achievement

People often assume that extremely high scores guarantee major success later in life, but I am not convinced it is that simple. I have known people with very high scores who did amazing things, and others who struggled to find direction or motivation.

Does an extremely high score actually predict long term achievement, or does it mostly indicate cognitive potential? How much do traits like persistence, curiosity, and emotional regulation matter compared to raw ability?

Extremely high IQ does predict better outcomes on average (higher education, prestigious careers, income), but the relationship isn’t as strong as people think once you’re above about 120-130. The famous Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth tracked kids in the top 1% and found they achieved way more than average, but there was huge variation within that group. Someone at 145 IQ isn’t guaranteed to outperform someone at 130. Beyond a threshold, other traits matter more: conscientiousness, creativity, passion for specific domains, emotional stability, and opportunity. Very high IQ gives you options and learning speed, but it doesn’t automatically create drive or direction. Plenty of 150+ IQ people underachieve because of depression, lack of motivation, or just choosing comfortable lives over ambitious ones.

You should look up the famous “Terman Study of the Gifted.” Lewis Terman tracked over 1,500 children with IQs above 135 for decades to see if they would become the next generation of leaders. The results were fascinating but humbling. While the “Termites” generally earned more and were healthier than average, they didn’t become the world-changing geniuses Terman expected. In fact, two future Nobel Prize winners (Luis Alvarez and William Shockley) were actually rejected from the study because their IQ scores weren’t high enough. It effectively proved that while IQ gets you a seat at the table, it doesn’t guarantee you’ll lead the meeting.

Extremely high intelligence might actually create unique obstacles. If everything academic comes easily early on, you might never develop frustration tolerance or work habits. If you see possibilities everywhere, you might struggle with commitment (like, why pursue this path when you could also pursue those five other fascinating paths? If you’re multiple standard deviations from the norm cognitively, you might have trouble finding intellectual peers or feeling understood). Some people with extreme scores flounder not despite their intelligence but partially because of the specific challenges it creates.